Saturday, October 31, 2020

2020 Election Prediction

The Presidential election polls were wrong in 2016 because pollsters didn't account for the number of people who disliked Clinton and because pollsters underestimated the number of (especially) non-college educated whites who felt that Trump was the perfect middle finger to a world that was bypassing them. Now four years later pollsters have adjusted. Trump has seemingly lost support among college educated whites and especially white college educated suburban women. 

Despite the protestations of some about the identity of the Democratic base, it's still the white vote that will be essential in determining the victor of Tuesday's election. And from what I've seen Trump will have trouble recapturing the 2016 coalition. I believe the results will be closer than some think but Biden should win. Either way the loser will feel that they lost an eminently winnable election. Depending on how big the margin is one or both major parties may change everything about themselves. We'll see what happens. Either way though there are a lot of issues and problems that will remain regardless of which rich man wins.



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