Saturday, November 1, 2014

The Nov 4 Election US Senate: Democratic Disaster or Republican Rout?

According to Nate Silver's  538 forecast it appears that the Democrats are due for a solid thumping in the elections this Tuesday. The forecast currently predicts a 68.3% chance of Republicans winning the Senate. Most other forecasts I've seen suggest that it's a done deal that the Republicans keep the House and possibly even extend their majority there. A lot of the Republican likely electorate is said to be mad as hell and ready to grab the nearest baseball bat and (figuratively) beat the doggie doo out of any Democratic elected officials that they can find. Conservatives and perhaps Republicans are allegedly fired up to vote against the entire Democratic agenda. This could be why so many Democratic Senatorial candidates have done their best to keep President Obama at arm's length, with some even going to far as to refuse to confirm they voted for the man. Possibly having gotten all they can get out of the "war on women" rhetoric, the Democrats could be belatedly realizing that men also vote.  
Tuesday’s results, Mr. McInturff added, would tell “whether it is possible that the single-minded focus that most Democratic candidates attached to the ‘war on women’ meant they never conveyed an economic and jobs message that might have led a higher chunk of the persuadable male vote to vote Democrat.”

Republicans increasingly make that argument that Democrats miscalculated in their zeal to galvanize women who otherwise would not vote in a midterm election. Democrats counter that Republicans use the phrase “Republicans’ war on women” more than Democrats to stoke a backlash among older and married women who reject partisan, feminist-sounding rhetoric and lean Republican. Ms. Greenberg said Republicans were “deliberately misconstruing” Democrats’ legitimate attacks. Yet she and other Democratic strategists complain their party has not effectively espoused a broader economic agenda, when women tell pollsters their top concern is jobs and the economy.
However, worried Democrats should know that the early voting numbers from some contested Senate races appear to be from younger and nonwhite voters who did not vote in 2010. Such people tend to lean Democratic.So there could be an unpleasant surprise for some Republicans. It depends on who shows up. I think that the Republicans will take the Senate. We will have a very interesting next two years. This election cycle was fascinating because President Obama, despite his popularity with some elements of the Democratic base, was sufficiently toxic with independents, Republicans, and Democratic leaning independents that almost no Democratic Senate candidate wanted to be seen with him, possibly causing an enthusiasm gap. Additionally some races could be a test of Hillary Clinton's or former President Clinton's coattails. We shall see.

So what's your call?

Will the Democrats lose the Senate?

If so what does this mean for the final two years of the Obama Presidency?

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