Tuesday, May 3, 2016
As of today's post, love it or hate it, Hillary Clinton has 2,165 of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination as the Democratic party's presidential candidate. That's a difference of 218 delegates. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders has 1,357 of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the nod. That's a difference of 1,026 delegates. As of today, there are 1,243 delegates still available in the Democratic primary. Which means Bernie would have to win 83% of the remaining delegates in order to win the primary. Conversely, Hillary would only have to win 17% of the outstanding delegates in order to win. That's math.
The mathematical problem for Bernie here is that he's not batting anywhere near 83% when it comes to winning primary elections. As of today, there have been 40 Democratic primary elections (yes, 40! I know right?). Bernie has won 17 out of the 40 elections, which comes out to 42.5%. Bernie would have to increase his win rate from 42.5% to 83% over the remaining elections. It would not be enough to beat Hillary in 50%, 60% or even 70% of the remaining contests. Bernie would literally need to double his previous winning streak in order to seal the deal; a feat that, mathematically speaking, is simply not probable.